Professor Kwesi Aning, the Director of the Faculty of Academic Affairs and Research at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre (KAIPTC), maintains an unwavering stance on the improbability of an ECOWAS military intervention in Niger, despite the recent announcement by heads of forces from select member states that they stand ready for action.
Professor Aning says his conviction remains steadfast, rooted in his assessment that the envisioned military intervention is unlikely to materialize. His skepticism revolves around the issue of credibility that ECOWAS presently grapples with. He asserts that before such a significant step can be taken, the bloc must address its credibility challenges and take measures to regain at least some level of its credibility.
Addressing the recent announcement made by the heads of forces of certain ECOWAS member states on Joy FM’s Newsfile, Professor Aning asserted that his perspective is grounded in the principles of forecasting, risk analysis, and risk assessment. He draws attention to his past accurate predictions of coup d’états, highlighting the analytical framework he employs to evaluate and forecast complex situations such as military interventions.
In elaborating on his reasoning, Professor Aning said ECOWAS needs to backtrack and rectify certain steps in order to reclaim portions of its eroded credibility. He shares his insight during an interview with Newsfile host, Samson Lardy Anyenini. He points out that, despite indications from the military regime in Niger that they are open to negotiations, a reluctance to reverse decisions seems to persist within ECOWAS due to a cultural aversion to admitting mistakes.
Meanwhile, reports suggest that discussions are rife in the media in Niger about the potential support from neighboring countries, including Burkina Faso, Mali, and Senegal, providing assistance to Niger in response to ECOWAS’ potential use of force.
Professor Aning’s perspective serves as a reminder of the intricate interplay between diplomatic, political, and credibility considerations in regional interventions. His comments shed light on the challenges ECOWAS faces as it navigates a complex situation and strives to strike a balance between restoring its credibility and pursuing its objectives in Niger.
