In the aftermath of Ghana’s 2024 general elections, the narrative surrounding Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s debut as the NPP presidential candidate has been dominated by the party’s defeat. Yet, a deeper dive into the data reveals a story of remarkable tenacity. The former Vice President secured 4,657,304 votes (41.61% of the total) despite navigating one of the most turbulent economic landscapes in recent Ghanaian history. This performance, often dismissed by critics, mirrors or even surpasses historical benchmarks for incumbents and challengers alike, positioning him as a formidable force for the NPP’s future ambitions.
Ghana’s elections have long been a beacon of democratic stability in West Africa, with peaceful transitions since the Fourth Republic began in 1992. The 2024 polls, however, were marked by economic discontent, voter apathy, and a shifting political dynamic. Former President John Dramani Mahama reclaimed the presidency with 6,328,397 votes (56.55%), capitalizing on public frustration with the NPP’s handling of economic woes. But Bawumia’s ability to retain a substantial voter base under duress suggests the NPP’s loss was not a repudiation of his leadership but a symptom of broader systemic challenges.
To appreciate Bawumia’s achievement, consider the 2016 elections. Then-incumbent President Mahama, seeking re-election amid economic slowdowns and power shortages, garnered 4,771,188 votes (44.53% of the total). This was widely regarded as one of the weakest showings for a sitting president in Ghana’s modern history, leading to his defeat by Nana Akufo-Addo, who won with 5,755,758 votes (53.72%). Fast-forward to 2024: Bawumia, as a first-time candidate representing an eight-year incumbent party, fell just short of Mahama’s 2016 tally with 4.6 million votes.
The parallel is striking, but the context amplifies Bawumia’s feat. In 2016, Mahama faced criticism for “dumsor” (persistent power outages) and fiscal mismanagement, yet he benefited from incumbency advantages like state resources and visibility. Bawumia, conversely, contended with a far graver economic storm. Ghana’s economy in 2024 grappled with a 19% depreciation of the cedi against the US dollar (the steepest in over three decades), high inflation at 23.8%, and a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 70.5%. These issues stemmed from global shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, compounded by domestic factors such as low revenue mobilization and energy sector debts.
Analysts point out that the NPP’s administration, under Akufo-Addo and Bawumia, implemented bold reforms like the Free Senior High School program and digitalization initiatives (e.g., the Ghana Card and mobile money interoperability), which bolstered long-term growth. GDP expanded by 5.7% in 2024, driven by mining, construction, and services. However, short-term pains (rising cost of living and unemployment) fueled opposition propaganda, portraying the NPP as out of touch. Despite this, Bawumia held the party’s core support, demonstrating his appeal as a technocrat who could communicate complex economic policies effectively.
A critical lens on the 2024 results reveals voter turnout as the election’s wildcard. In 2020, turnout stood at 78.89%, with 13,432,857 votes cast out of 17,027,941 registered voters. Akufo-Addo secured victory with 6,730,587 votes (51.30%) against Mahama’s 6,213,182 (47.36%). By 2024, registered voters had risen to 18,774,195, but turnout plummeted to 60.88%, yielding only 11,430,531 votes—a shortfall of nearly 2 million compared to 2020.
This drop, attributed to economic disillusionment and fatigue with the two-party dominance, disproportionately affected the NPP. Polling data and post-election analyses suggest the “missing” voters were largely from NPP strongholds in the Ashanti and Eastern regions, where apathy stemmed from unmet expectations on jobs and infrastructure. If turnout had matched 2020 levels (assuming the additional voters leaned toward historical NPP patterns) the margin could have narrowed dramatically. Hypothetically, applying 2024’s vote shares to 2020’s total votes would give Mahama about 7.59 million and Bawumia 5.59 million, but adjusting for NPP-leaning abstainers, experts estimate Bawumia could have closed the gap to as little as 100,000 votes, potentially flipping the outcome.
This scenario underscores a key insight: Elections in maturing democracies like Ghana are won not just on policy but on mobilization. The NDC’s robust grassroots efforts, including youth engagement and anti-corruption rhetoric, contrasted with the NPP’s perceived complacency.
Bawumia’s campaign was waged against a backdrop of relentless challenges. The cedi’s 19% depreciation eroded purchasing power, exacerbating inflation and poverty, with food insecurity affecting millions. Critics lambasted the NPP for fiscal deficits (7.7% of GDP in 2024) and reliance on IMF bailouts, echoing the 2016 narrative against Mahama. Opposition propaganda amplified these issues, framing Bawumia (once hailed as an economic whiz) as complicit in the downturn.
Yet, Bawumia’s resilience shone through. As a northerner and Muslim in a predominantly Christian south-dominated political scene, he bridged ethnic divides, appealing to youth with his “digital Bawumia” persona. His vote tally, comparable to Mahama’s 2016 low, came without the incumbency boost, highlighting his personal brand’s strength amid adversity.
As the NPP licks its wounds, the focus shifts to 2028. Political strategists warn against internal scapegoating of Bawumia, advocating instead for voter mobilization reforms. With over 60 NPP MPs already endorsing him as the frontrunner, Bawumia is positioned as the party’s “fastest path to victory,” emphasizing unity and base rebuilding. The party has launched internal reforms, including early primaries and policy reviews, to address apathy and economic grievances.
Intriguingly, the NDC’s apparent wariness of Bawumia speaks volumes. Pre-election rhetoric from NDC figures, including battle cries, hint at apprehension over his intellectual prowess and cross-regional appeal. Bawumia himself has claimed the NDC fears him, a sentiment echoed in post-election analyses. If the NPP can reverse the turnout decline, they stand a strong chance of reclaiming power.
