Fuel prices in Ghana are expected to increase from 16 May 2026, even if government extends its current policy aimed at cushioning consumers from rising global crude oil costs.

This is according to Dr Riverson Oppong, Chief Executive Officer of the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies, who outlined two pricing scenarios in an interview with JOYBUSINESS ahead of the policy’s expiration.

Under a potential extension of the intervention programme, petrol prices are projected to rise by between 2.5% and 3% per litre, pushing pump prices to about GH¢14.50. Diesel is also expected to increase by roughly 1.8%, reaching around GH¢16.50 per litre.

“Extending the policy will only lower the expected margin of increase at the pumps,” Dr Oppong explained.

However, if government allows the policy to lapse, the impact on consumers could be sharper. Petrol prices could climb to about GH¢15.80 per litre, while diesel may rise to approximately GH¢18.05 per litre.

Dr Oppong noted that liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices remain uncertain, as they will largely depend on prevailing stock levels on the market.

He also cautioned against assumptions that increased imports—particularly discussions around sourcing refined petroleum products from Nigeria—would automatically lead to lower prices.

“There should be a clear distinction between product availability and low prices at the pumps,” he said.

The projected increases come amid renewed volatility on the global oil market, with crude prices climbing to around $107 per barrel. The surge follows reports that the United States could resume strikes on Iran, raising concerns over supply disruptions.

Analysts warn that sustained increases in global oil prices could feed into domestic inflation, particularly through transport and energy costs.

Despite these risks, international institutions including the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and Fitch Ratings have maintained that Ghana is still on track to end 2026 with single-digit inflation.

The anticipated fuel price adjustments are expected to take effect in the next pricing window, with consumers and businesses bracing for potential knock-on effects across the economy.